Ghana Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jun, 2016 |    No of Pages: 83 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: With the start up of new production at TEN and Sankofa fields, as well as increasing outputfrom the country's flagship Jubilee field, we expect Ghana to double its crude and gas production over thenext five years. We note an upside risk to our projections arising from the ongoing exploration activitiesover the medium term, but the country's output levels have been suffering from recurring technical issues atthe production facilities. Our outlook for Ghana's downstream sector is more subdued due to ageing and in efficient infrastructure, and we expect only minor production additions over the coming decade.The main trends and developments in Ghana's oil and gas sector are:
- Between 2015 and 2025, we forecast Ghana's oil reserves to decrease by 7.4% from an estimated 700 million barrels (mn bbl) to 648mn bbl. However, Ghana boasts significant, underexplored acreage offshore and we acknowledge a strong upside risk from continued exploration.
- Ghana's crude oil and liquids production stood at an estimated 109,200b/d in 2015 and we forecast thisfigure to nearly double to 216,720b/d by the end of 2020. However, recurring technical issues at the floating production storage and off loading (FPSO) vessel could lower the expected output from the country's key producing Jubilee field. We expect Ghana's current refining capacity to remain stable at 45,000b/d over the coming decade. In2015, Ghana produced just 9,000b/d of refined fuels due to outages and low utilisation rates at the TOR.We anticipate the output to increase gradually in the next 10 years due to ongoing maintenance and upgrades at the facility. In 2015, estimated refined products consumption in Ghana stood at 78,320b/d, marking a 7.3% y-o-yincrease. Over the coming decade, we forecast the consumption to increase by an average of 4.2% perannum, driven mostly by greater demand in diesel and motor gasoline.
BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Ghana 2014-2020) . . . 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Table: Tano Basin Blocks Exploration, 2007-2013 . . . . 12
Upstream Projects ..... 15
Table: Ghana Upstream Projects . . . . . 15
Upstream Production - Oil ... 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends .... 18
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2014-2019) . 20
Table: Oil Production (Ghana 2020-2025) . 21
Upstream Production - Gas .. 22
Latest Updates 22
Structural Trends ..... 22
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2014-2019) 24
Table: Gas Production (Ghana 2020-2025) 24
Refining . 25
Latest Updates 25
Structural Trends ..... 25
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2014-2019) . . . 27
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Ghana 2020-2025) . . . 27
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 28
Latest Updates 28
Structural Trends ..... 28
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2014-2019) 34
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Ghana 2020-2025) 34
Gas Consumption ...... 35
Latest Updates 35
Structural Trends ..... 35
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2014-2019) . . . . 36
Table: Gas Consumption (Ghana 2020-2025) . . . . 36
Trade - Oil ...... 37
Latest Updates 37
Structural Trends ..... 37
Crude Oil ..... 37
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2020) . . . . . 39
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) . . . . . 39
Refined Fuels . 39
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019) . 41
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) . 41
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 42
Latest Updates 42
Structural Trends ..... 42
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2014-2019) . . . . . 44
Table: Gas Net Exports (Ghana 2020-2025) . . . . . 44
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 45
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ...... 45
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . . . . . 45
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential . 48
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 48
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity . 51
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 51
Ghana - Risk/Reward Index .. 53
Upstream Index ....... 53
Downstream Index ... 54
Market Overview ... 55
Ghana Energy Market Overview ..... 55
Regulatory Overview 55
Licensing Regime ..... 56
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms . . . . . 56
Fiscal Regime 57
Table: Ghana Model Petroleum Agreement Main Licensing Terms . . . . . 57
Licensing Rounds ..... 57
Oil & Gas Infrastructure ...... 58
Oil Refineries . 58
Table: Ghana Oil Refineries . . . . 58
Oil Storage Facilities 58
Table: Ghana Main Oil Storage Facilities . 58
Oil Trade Facilities . 59
Table: Ghana Main Oil Trade Facilities . . . 59
Competitive Landscape . 60
Competitive Landscape Summary .. 60
Table: Key Players - Ghana Energy Sector 61
Table: Key Upstream Players . . 61
Table: Key Downstream Player 62
Company Profile .... 63
Tullow Oil ....... 63
Latest Updates 63
Table: Major Company Upstream Assets in Ghana . . . . 64
Table: Key Financial Data 64
GNPC ... 65
Latest Updates 65
Table: GNPC Major Upstream Assets In Ghana . 66
Table: Key Financial Data 66
Regional Overview 67
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil .... 67
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade . 75
Glossary ........ 76
Table: Glossary Of Terms 76
Methodology . 78
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 78
Source . 80
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 80
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 82
Table: Weighting . . . 83
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