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BMI View: Progress on the formation of a unity government offers upside risk
to oil production in South Sudan. However, we expect the pace of progress to
remain slow, with no significant gains in output before 2017. The longer-term
outlook for both Sudan and South Sudan is heavily bearish, due to a thin
projects pipeline, lack of exploration and poor prospects for investment. The
downstream sector is also weak, and we see limited room for growth given the
high capital requirements, strained fiscal position of the respective
governments and a lack of interest from foreign investors. Consumption growth is
relatively strong, but from a low base. Growth prospects have also narrowed over
recent quarters, due to subsidy reform in Sudan and a dollar shortage in South
Latest Updates And Key Trends
■ Exploration in both Sudan and South Sudan will remain heavily constrained. An
uncertain political and security environment, combined with major capex claw
backs across the industry, will see limited investment in new exploration across
our forecast period.
■ Oil production in both countries is set for long-term decline. A range of
factors are at play here, including the lack of major discoveries to be brought
online, rapid depletion rates at producing fields, widespread damage to
infrastructure, faltering investment and a lack of wider foreign participation.
■ Refined fuels production will fail to keep pace with the strong rise in
consumption, triggering a mounting dependency on refined fuels imports in South
Sudan and falling exports from Sudan. Refineries in Sudan will struggle to
maintain competitiveness against their global peers, due to falling domestic
crude production, limited economies of scale and a lack of appetite in new
■ Export revenues are at risk of sustained decline, both in line with falling
domestic crude output and a sharp drop in global oil prices. Increased
competition in Sudan and South Sudan's key Asian export markets also threatens
further downward price pressures, over the longer term.