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BMI View: Falling production and steady gains in consumption will maintain
New Zealand's status as a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels over
our forecast period to 2025. Low crude prices will allow the country to
diversify its crude options and ease its heavy dependence on the Middle East.
Gas imports remain unlikely, as a small consumer market and limited potential
for large-scale consumption growth deter international investment.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
■ Additional gas from the Mangahewa and the Pohokura fields will support natural
gas production to increase through to 2020, though limited scope for significant
new discoveries to offset natural declines will take its toll on overall output
from 2021 and thereafter.
■ The country's small domestic consumer base means that major consumption growth
is unlikely. This poses a major headwind to attracting greater foreign
investment in its downstream, as well as in largescale infrastructure projects.
■ Despite improving utilisation rates at the country's refinery, New Zealand
will depend on imports from regional suppliers to meet rising fuels demand.
Favourable prices will allow New Zealand to diversify its crude sources,
benefitting the likes of Qatar, Brunei and Russia.
■ New Zealand's lack of an LNG import or export infrastructure means that its
gas consumption remains capped by domestic gas production. The country's small
domestic market and largely stagnant consumption growth outlook renders
expensive LNG terminal projects infeasible.