New Zealand Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: May, 2016 |    No of Pages: 64 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Falling production and steady gains in consumption will maintain New Zealand's status as a net importer of both crude oil and refined fuels over our forecast period to 2025. Low crude prices will allow the country to diversify its crude options and ease its heavy dependence on the Middle East. Gas imports remain unlikely, as a small consumer market and limited potential for large-scale consumption growth deter international investment.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
■ Additional gas from the Mangahewa and the Pohokura fields will support natural gas production to increase through to 2020, though limited scope for significant new discoveries to offset natural declines will take its toll on overall output from 2021 and thereafter.
■ The country's small domestic consumer base means that major consumption growth is unlikely. This poses a major headwind to attracting greater foreign investment in its downstream, as well as in largescale infrastructure projects.
■ Despite improving utilisation rates at the country's refinery, New Zealand will depend on imports from regional suppliers to meet rising fuels demand. Favourable prices will allow New Zealand to diversify its crude sources, benefitting the likes of Qatar, Brunei and Russia.
■ New Zealand's lack of an LNG import or export infrastructure means that its gas consumption remains capped by domestic gas production. The country's small domestic market and largely stagnant consumption growth outlook renders expensive LNG terminal projects infeasible.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (New Zealand 2014-2020) . . 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts .. 7
SWOT ...... 8
Oil & Gas SWOT  8
Industry Forecast .... 9
Upstream Exploration .. 9
Latest Updates .. 9
Structural Trends ....... 9
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (New Zealand 2014-2019) . . 11
Table: Proven Oil and Gas Reserves (New Zealand 2020-2025) . . 11
Upstream Projects ..... 13
Table: New Zealand - Key Upstream Projects . . . 13
Upstream Production - Oil ... 16
Latest Updates  16
Structural Trends ..... 16
Table: Oil Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) 17
Table: Oil Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) 18
Upstream Production - Gas .. 18
Latest Updates  18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: Gas Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) . . . . . 19
Table: Gas Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) . . . . . 20
Refining . 21
Latest Updates  21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (New Zealand 2014-2019) . . 22
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (New Zealand 2020-2025) . . 23
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 23
Latest Updates  23
Structural Trends ..... 23
Table: Refined Products Consumption (2014-2019) . . . 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (New Zealand 2020-2025) . . . . . 25
Gas Consumption ...... 26
Latest Updates  26
Structural Trends ..... 26
Table: Gas Consumption (New Zealand 2014-2019) . . . 29
Table: Gas Consumption (New Zealand 2020-2025) . . . 29
Trade - Oil ...... 30
Crude Oil Forecasts . 30
Latest Updates  30
Structural Trends ..... 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) . . . . 32
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) . . . . 32
Fuels Trade Forecasts ....... 32
Latest Updates  32
Structural Trends ..... 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) 33
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) 34
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 35
Latest Updates  35
Structural Trends ..... 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (New Zealand 2014-2019) . . . . 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (New Zealand 2020-2025) . . . . 36
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 37
Asia - Risk/Reward Index ..... 37
Table: Asia's Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index 38
Upstream Risk/Reward Index: Production Cuts Reinforce Bearish Outlook . 39
Table: Asia: Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 40
Downstream Risk/Reward Index: Refinery Developments Lift Scores For Malaysia And The Philippines ....... 41
Table: Asia: Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 42
New Zealand - Risk/Reward Index .. 43
Upstream Index - Overview . 43
Upstream Index - Rewards .. 43
Upstream Index - Risks ...... 43
Downstream Index - Overview ...... 43
Market Overview ... 44
New Zealand Energy Market Overview ..... 44
Regulatory Structure . 44
Table: 2013 Permit Duration Changes . . . . . 44
Fiscal Regime . 45
Table: Key Fiscal Indicators . . . . 45
Licensing Rounds ..... 45
Table: 2015 Block Offer Winners . . . . . 46
Table: 2016 Block Offer Release Areas . . . . 46
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 47
Oil Refineries  47
Table: Oil Refineries 47
Oil Trade And Storage Facilities ... 47
Oil And Gas Pipelines ........ 47
Gas Storage Facilities ........ 47
Regional Overview  49
Asia Regional Overview ....... 49
Glossary ........ 57
Table: Glossary Of Terms 57
Methodology . 59
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 59
Source . 61
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 61
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . 63
Table: Weighting . . . 64
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