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BMI View: Tunisia's investor-friendly government and stable business
environment bodes well for foreign investors. However, the country's oil
reserves are depleting and recent exploration efforts have only resulted in
relatively small discoveries. We believe that a lack of new significant
discoveries will continue pushing Tunisia's oil production volumes lower across
our forecast period to 2025.
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
-Exploration is yielding positive results in Tunisia despite limited resource
potential. While it is unlikely the country will rid itself of hydrocarbon
imports in the coming years, this trend supports greater exploration and
production activity over the longer term.
-Having produced 49,000b/d of crude oil and condensates in 2015, Tunisia is a
small and declining crude oil producer. The country's production levels have
been decreasing gradually since 2007, when it peaked at 83,300b/d. While new
conventional fields coming online will support Tunisian oil output over the next
four years, they will not be able to compensate for gradual production decline
from maturing fields across our forecast period.
-Following the CAT-1 discovery, Mazarine and ETAP submitted a Plan of
Development which was
finalised in Q116 and approved by Comite Consultatif des Hydrocarbues on May 5,
-The Bizarte refinery will remain the only oil refining facility in Tunisia
throughout our forecast period to 2025. With modest capacity of 34,000b/d,
refined products production will be unable to meet the rapidly increasing
-We have upgraded Tunisia's refined fuels consumption outlook this quarter on
the back of a more robust economic growth over the coming years than previously
expected. This will promote greater consumption of refined fuels with
consumption set to increase at year-on-year (y-o-y) average of 3% over the
-Tunisia is a small gas producer, primarily producing gas for the domestic
market. In 2015, Tunisian gas output declined slightly. While small recent
discoveries will boost Tunisia's gas production to 2.1bcm by 2018, gas output
will shrink from 2019 onwards.