Tunisia Oil and Gas Report

 Published On: Jul, 2016 |    No of Pages: 70 |  Published By: BMI Oil and Gas | Format: PDF
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BMI View: Tunisia's investor-friendly government and stable business environment bodes well for foreign investors. However, the country's oil reserves are depleting and recent exploration efforts have only resulted in relatively small discoveries. We believe that a lack of new significant discoveries will continue pushing Tunisia's oil production volumes lower across our forecast period to 2025.

Latest Updates And Key Forecasts
-Exploration is yielding positive results in Tunisia despite limited resource potential. While it is unlikely the country will rid itself of hydrocarbon imports in the coming years, this trend supports greater exploration and production activity over the longer term.

-Having produced 49,000b/d of crude oil and condensates in 2015, Tunisia is a small and declining crude oil producer. The country's production levels have been decreasing gradually since 2007, when it peaked at 83,300b/d. While new conventional fields coming online will support Tunisian oil output over the next four years, they will not be able to compensate for gradual production decline from maturing fields across our forecast period.
-Following the CAT-1 discovery, Mazarine and ETAP submitted a Plan of Development which was
finalised in Q116 and approved by Comite Consultatif des Hydrocarbues on May 5, 2016.
-The Bizarte refinery will remain the only oil refining facility in Tunisia throughout our forecast period to 2025. With modest capacity of 34,000b/d, refined products production will be unable to meet the rapidly increasing domestic demand.
-We have upgraded Tunisia's refined fuels consumption outlook this quarter on the back of a more robust economic growth over the coming years than previously expected. This will promote greater consumption of refined fuels with consumption set to increase at year-on-year (y-o-y) average of 3% over the 2016-2020 period.
-Tunisia is a small gas producer, primarily producing gas for the domestic market. In 2015, Tunisian gas output declined slightly. While small recent discoveries will boost Tunisia's gas production to 2.1bcm by 2018, gas output will shrink from 2019 onwards.

BMI Industry View ... 7
Table: Headline Forecasts (Tunisia 2014-2020) . . . . 7
Latest Updates And Key Forecasts .. 7
SWOT ...... 9
Oil & Gas SWOT 9
Industry Forecast .. 10
Upstream Exploration 10
Latest Updates 10
Structural Trends ..... 10
Upstream Projects ..... 13
Table: Upstream Project Database . . 13
Upstream Production - Oil ... 15
Latest Updates 15
Structural Trends ..... 15
Table: Oil Production (Tunisia 2014-2019) . . . 17
Table: Oil Production (Tunisia 2020-2025) . . . 17
Upstream Production - Gas .. 18
Latest Updates 18
Structural Trends ..... 18
Table: Gas Production (Tunisia 2014-2019) . . 20
Table: Gas Production (Tunisia 2020-2025) . . 20
Refining . 21
Latest Updates 21
Structural Trends ..... 21
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Tunisia 2014-2019) . . . 23
Table: Refining Capacity and Refined Products Production (Tunisia 2020-2025) . . . 23
Refined Fuels Consumption .. 24
Latest Updates 24
Structural Trends ..... 24
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tunisia 2014-2019) . . . . 25
Table: Refined Products Consumption* (Tunisia 2020-2025) . . . . 25
Gas Consumption ...... 26
Latest Updates 26
Structural Trends ..... 26
Table: Gas Consumption (Tunisia 2014-2019) 28
Table: Gas Consumption (Tunisia 2020-2025) 28
Trade - Oil ...... 29
Crude Oil Trade ...... 29
Latest Updates 29
Structural Trends ..... 29
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2020) 30
Table: Crude Oil Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025) 31
Refined Fuels Trade . 31
Latest Updates 31
Structural Trends ..... 31
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2019) . 32
Table: Refined Fuels Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025) . 33
Trade - Gas (Pipeline And LNG) .... 34
Latest Updates 34
Structural Trends ..... 34
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tunisia 2014-2019) . 35
Table: Gas Net Exports (Tunisia 2020-2025) . 36
Industry Risk Reward Index ... 37
Africa - Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index ...... 37
Table: BMI Africa Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Index . 37
Above-Ground Risks Dulling Below-Ground Potential . 40
Table: BMI Africa Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . . 40
Downstream Sector Holds Limited Opportunity . 43
Table: BMI Africa Downstream Risk/Reward Index . . . . 43
Tunisia - Risk/Reward Index . 46
Market Overview ... 48
Tunisia Energy Market Overview .... 48
Key Legislation ........ 48
Regulatory Bodies .... 48
National Oil Company ....... 48
Fiscal Regime . 49
Table: Tunisia Fiscal Terms . . . . 49
Licensing Regime ..... 49
Table: Tunisian Licensing Regime . . . 49
Oil And Gas Infrastructure ... 50
Oil Refineries . 50
Pipelines ....... 50
Company Profile .... 52
ETAP .... 52
Company Overview .. 52
Latest Updates 52
Table: Concessions Operated By ETAP In Tunisia . 53
Regional Overview 54
Africa - Bullish Gas, Bearish Oil .... 54
Table: Africa Oil & Gas Production, Consumption, Refining Capacity And Trade . . 62
Glossary ........ 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms . 63
Methodology . 65
Industry Forecast Methodology .... 65
Source . 67
Risk/Reward Index Methodology ... 67
Table: Bmi's Oil & Gas Upstream Risk/Reward Index . . 69
Table: Weighting 70
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