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Human Centric Lighting Global Market Forecast 2021-2031

Human Centric Lighting Global Market Forecast 2021-2031

Human Centric Lighting, also sometimes referred to as Biodynamic Light or Circadian Lighting, is the next development stage in the evolution of lighting and luminaire design; this report provides estimates and forecasts, based on market research study work performed by ElectroniCast Consultants.

Human Centric Lighting (HCL) is aimed to mimic (closely imitate) the natural color of daylight, which stimulates the production of melatonin and serotonin which control the physical, mental and behavioral changes that follow a roughly 24-hour cycle, responding primarily to light and darkness in a person, or their circadian rhythm.

The module/device hardware covered in this market forecast data, are used for stationary/ fixed locations (non-vehicle) solid-state general lighting applications, however, vehicle use (automotive, aircraft and train for example) is also discussed in the text of the report.

The market data are segmented into the following regions; separate data-sections are provided for the following regions:
Rest of America
Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA)
Asia Pacific (APAC)

Market Forecast by HCL Product Hardware for Solid-State Lighting
ElectroniCast provides this market forecast for product hardware that are initially and primarily used with Human Centric Lighting (HCL) as the primary objective and initial consideration, as detailed in Table 1.

Light Engines A light engine is the LED equivalent of a conventional lamp. It normally consists of a LED chip mounted on a circuit board that has electrical and mechanical fixings, meaning it is ready to be fixed in the luminaire. Note that the light engine may not consist of only one chip; it may be an array of several chips, sometimes with a phosphor coating. ElectroniCast includes the following in the Light Engine category: driver, array, and power supply; however, excludes external wiring harnesses.

Light Engine Driver segmentation
DALI Driver Control Interface -Digital Addressable Lighting Interface (DALI) is a trademark for network-based systems that control lighting in building automation. The underlying technology was established by a consortium of lighting equipment manufacturers as a successor for 0-10 V lighting control systems, and as an open standard alternative to Digital Signal Interface (DSI), on which it is based. DALI is specified by technical standards.

DMX Driver Control Interface - (Digital Multiplex) is a standard for digital communication networks. It was originally intended as a standardized method for controlling light dimmers, which, prior to DMX512, had employed various incompatible proprietary protocols.

Other or Proprietary – Other control interface units, which are not DALI or DMX-based.

Lighting Management
Sensors - Typically, lighting control sensors features include motion detection, light- level detection and IR receive (remote controlling). Each of these features can be operated at the same time, allowing automation scenarios such as turning on the lights after detecting motion and then dimming the lighting level once the available sunlight has been measured, thereby providing additional energy savings.

Color Control, Digital Dimming and Switches Control Units – These control capabilities are provided in separate stand-alone or combined units.
Human Centric Lighting Product Categories

Light Engine / Lamp – Module

Lighting Management - Modules / Devices (DALI / DMX / Other)

Control Units / Dimming / Switches

Standalone / Luminaire LED Driver Modules

Standalone Sensors / Other

Note: Software is discussed in this report; however, software values are not counted in the market data

Market Forecast, By Function

This report provides the 2021-2031 market data review and forecast by the following functions:
Consumption Value (US$, million)
Quantity (number/units)
Average Selling Prices (ASP $, per unit)

The consumption (use) value is determined by multiplying the number of lighting units by the average selling price (ASP) in US Dollars. The average selling prices are not retail prices; the prices are based on the price of the product at the initial factory level. These are the original manufacturer’s (“factory”) prices invoiced to the first (original) customer, or transfer prices for internal (captive) production.

Market Forecast by Applications:
Offices / Work Areas
Hospitality and Healthcare
Shopping / Stores
Other Applications

Competitive Analysis
Company profiles and product examples of selected competitors
Market Share Estimates of Leaders in HCL ($ Million, Year 2021)

Market Research Methodology
Market analysis and technology forecasting are complex tasks. Any predictions of the shape and trends of technology and economic movement start from the notion that the germ of what will be important tomorrow is present, although smaller or larger or in a different form, in our environment today. However, taking as a basis for a prediction the assumptions of current, conventional belief create a set of preconceived notions that can lead to serious mistakes. ElectroniCast, instead, looks to the basic driving forces.

The future market for the use of a particular type of Human Centric Lighting solutions depends on a number of factors, including: User equipment demand, for example – applications: intelligent/smart buildings, retail store/shopping and hospitality, as well as schools/education and others to push market demand. Also, energy efficiency requirements and government regulations/laws/mandates/low carbon footprint, future-proofing (design and in technology), economy and investment community, product life cycles, competing technologies/solutions, cost/benefit ratios, requirements driven by Internet of Things (IoT), intelligent/digital building lighting controls, and others. Additionally, environment and awareness of health and alertness benefits in HCL, mood lighting, and other smart lighting solutions.

Information Base This study is based on analysis of information obtained continually since 2002 through our research regarding LED lighting solutions, but updated through the middle of June 2022 – specifically addressing the solid-state lighting (SSL) Human Centric Lighting (HCL) market attractiveness. During this period, ElectroniCast analysts performs interviews with authoritative and representative individuals in the LED manufacturing (materials, chips, packaging, devices, associated parts/pieces, fittings/ fixtures - luminaires) and building/facility management, local/state and federal government policy and management, LED driver IC and micro-controllers, product distributors, building management, import/export, and other. The interviews were conducted principally with:

Engineers, marketing personnel and management at manufacturers of LEDs (chips, packaged LEDs, lamps, fixtures/luminaires, controls, systems) as well as other technologies.
Design group leaders, engineers, marketing personnel and market planners at major users and potential users of Human Centric Lighting solutions.
Other industry experts, including those focused with standards activities, trade associations, and investments.

The interviews covered issues of technology, R&D support, pricing, contract size, reliability, documentation, installation/maintenance crafts, standards, supplier competition and other topics.

Customers and distributors also were interviewed, to obtain their estimates of quantities received and average prices paid. Customer estimates of historical and expected near term future growth of their application are obtained. Their views of use of new technology products were obtained.

At ElectroniCast, analysts then considered customer expectations of near-term growth in their application, plus forecasted economic payback of investment, technology trends and changes in government regulations, to derive estimated growth rates of quantity and price of each product subset in each application. These forecasted growth rates are combined with the estimated baseline data to obtain the long-range forecasts at the lowest detailed level of each product and application.

A full review of published information was also performed to supplement information obtained through interviews. The following sources were reviewed:
Professional technical journals and papers
Trade press articles
Technical conference proceedings
Product literature
Company profile and financial information
Additional information based on previous ElectroniCast market studies
Personal knowledge of the research team.
In analyzing and forecasting the complexities of the regional markets for light emitting diode products, it is essential that the market research team have a good and a deep understanding of the technology and of the industry. ElectroniCast members who participated in this report were qualified.

Cross-Correlation Increases Accuracy The quantities of packaged LEDs, LED Driver ICs, LED materials/wafer/die/chips, LED Lamps and LED fixtures (luminaire) and other LED-based components, manufacturing processes/quality control/yields, and end-use products used in a particular application are interrelated. Since ElectroniCast conducts annual analysis and forecast updates in each LED component field, accurate current quantity estimates are part of the corporate database. These quantities are cross-correlated as a "sanity check".

ElectroniCast has conducted extensive research and updated their forecasts of several LED lighting categories. As technology and applications have advanced, the number of component subsets covered by the forecasts has expanded impressively.

The calculation and analysis data spreadsheet technique is based upon input/output analysis, leveraging the quantitative consumption quantity, price and value of each item in each application at all levels to achieve reasonable quantitative conclusions; this interactive analysis concept, first applied on a major scale by Leonteff, of the US Department of Commerce, in the mid-1950s, was then adopted successfully by analyst/forecasting firms Quantum Science, Gnostic Concepts and (in 1981) by ElectroniCast.

Nature of the Data This report provides the consumption value, quantity and prices of SSL-based modules/devices, which are used in various settings (end-user locations – applications) - worldwide. The following details are important in interpreting the data presented in the study results/report:

Significant figures - rounding: The data have been rounded to an appropriate number of decimal places. In some instances, this may result in minor apparent inconsistencies at summary levels.
Current dollars: All values in the Market Analysis and Forecast are expressed in current US dollars. Therefore, growth rates and forecasted values include inflation, forecasted to average 5 percent per year.
The quantitative forecasts and value calculations for the SSL (currently LEDs, but eventually OLEDs may play a role) lighting modules/devices, as well as studying average selling price market data and trends.

Global Market Forecast proceeded as follows:
1)The values for each year were based on known raw data or calculated by formulae at the lowest data entry levels. The resulting values were summed by formulae to successively higher levels data.
2)With the value forecasted for each track module/device used for HCL applications, average annual growth rates for 2021-2026 and 2026-2031 were then calculated from the forecasted data.
3)For each module/device category, analysis was performed and breakdowns were forecasted for (geographical) regional consumption percentages for each year of the forecast.

Consumption Value: The consumption value of Human Centric Lighting (HCL) modules/devices is determined by the final application (“end-use”) and ownership of that product. For example, a standalone LED Driver is produced in Europe and is then shipped to the United States and then used in the United States, will be shown in the database as a LED Lamp consumed (used) in the U.S.A. (not Europe).

Inventory Change The change in the monetary value of the inventory between two different accounting periods. The forecasting models predict this change rather than the absolute magnitudes of the inventory levels. Normally, this is the most volatile of all of the adjustments, and has several components: parts, work-in-process, finished goods, pipeline, and imported subassembly.

R&D (Research and Development) Noncapitalized labor, which is used for research, design engineering, manufacturing development, and start-up, costs of new production lines. It does not include capital equipment and associated setup costs, marketing support, or normal production support. It does include expense incurred while prototyping and developing a new process or production line.

Forecast Lighting Demand Growth Based on primary research (interviews and evaluations) with engineers and product planners, ElectroniCast can see ideas and then (eventually) concepts about 3-7 years before innovation solutions (products) are announced in the public domain. Once we feel confident that these ideas and concepts will become innovative solutions (new products), we set anticipated usage into the market forecast. Therefore, as we are looking as several years, many of the future products may not even be at the idea-stage yet. It is also important to note that ElectroniCast, in effect, forecast lighting demand growth, which will drive demand for increased capability/capacity SSL-based (solid-state lighting) components, modules/devices, fixtures (luminaire), and systems; therefore, we have expertise of what to look for.

Yes, the forecast will most likely change over the 10-year forecast period, as “sure-bet” products “flop” and innovation solutions enter the arena. ElectroniCast analysts have extensive experience at searching for and finding-out about these ideas-concepts-innovations and evaluating them.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary
1.1 Overview
1.2 Human Centric Lighting Product Examples
1.3 Technology Research Summaries - Human Centric Lighting
1.4 Software Considerations for Human Centric Lighting
1.5 Unpackaged and Packaged LEDs - Overview
1.6 Barriers to Growth in the US Military/Government Sector
1.7 COVID-19 Pandemic Brief

2. Global Market Forecast - Human Centric Lighting
2.1 Overview
2.2 America Market Forecast (USA and Rest of America)
2.3 EMEA Market Forecast
2.4 APAC Market Forecast

3. LED Lighting: Competitive Analysis/Market Opportunity Analysis
3.1 Overview
3.1.1 Market Opportunity Analysis - Market Dynamics
3.1.2 Market Opportunity/Sales Channels
3.2 Company Profiles - General Lighting

A-Bright Incorporated
Acuity Brands Lighting, Inc. (ABL)
AFX, Inc.
ALPHABET Lighting (Ledra Brands, Inc.)
American Bright Optoelectronics Corp.
Amerlux, LLC.
ams AG (Including ams OSRAM)
Analog Devices, Inc.
Asia Unique LED Lighting Co., Ltd.
Aurora Ltd.
Bajaj Electricals Limited (BEL)
Biological Innovation and Optimization Systems, LLC (BIOS)
Bridgelux, Inc.
Citizen Electronics Company, Limited
Cisco Systems Inc.
CLARUS Korea/CLARUS UK (Jungho Group)
Cree LED (SGH)
Crestron Electronics, Inc.
Derungs Licht AG (the Waldmann Group)
Display Lighting Ltd.
Dow Corning Electronics (Dow)
Eaton Corporation plc (Cooper Lighting)
EcoSense Lighting
Epistar Corporation
Everlight Electronics Company Limited
Fagerhult (AB Fagerhult)
Feit Electric
Finetechnix Company, Ltd. (Fine Group)
Flex LTD.
Fulham Company, Inc.
GE Current, a Daintree company (American Industrial Partners/Hubble)
GE Lighting - A Savant Company
GlacialLight Inc.
Green Creative (Harbour Group)
GuangZhou Lovely Lighting Co., Ltd
Harvatek International
High Power Lighting Corp. (HPLighting)
Horner Lighting Group (Horner APG, LLC.)
Independence LED Lighting, LLC
Infineon Technologies AG
Intelligent LED Solutions (ILS) - Intelligent Group Solutions Ltd (IGS)
Intematix Corporation
JESCO Lighting
Johnson Controls
Kenall Manufacturing Company
L&S LED Company
LED Luks
Legrand S.A.
LEISO Lighting (DongGuan) Tech., Ltd.
Leviton Manufacturing Company / ConTech Lighting / Intense Lighting
Lextar Electronics (AU Optronics)
LF Illumination, LLC
LG Innotek
Liton Lighting
LSI Industries Inc.
Lumenia d.o.o.
Lumileds Holding B.V.
Luming Technology Group Co., Ltd.
Luminus Devices (San'an Optoelectronics Co., Ltd / Lightera Corporation)
LUMITECH Produktion und Entwicklung GmbH (LUMITECH)
Lutron Electronics Co., Inc.
Marvell (Marvell Technology Group Ltd; Marvell Semiconductor, Inc)
MAXIC Technology Corporation
MEAN WELL Enterprises Co., Ltd.
Microchip Technology Inc.
Molex LLC
Navray Korea Company, Ltd.
NexLight (Northport Engineering Group)
Nichia Corporation
Oktalite Lichttechnik GmbH (TRILUX GmbH & Co. KG)
ON Semiconductor
Panasonic Corporation
Power Integrations, Inc.
Regiolux GmbH
Renesas Electronics Corporation
Revolution Lighting Technologies, Inc. (TNT Energy)
Richtek Technology Corporation
ROHM Company, Ltd.
Samjin Company, Ltd.
Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd
Sanken Electric Co., Ltd. (Allegro MicroSystems)
SemiLEDs Corporation
Senslite Corporation
Seoul Semiconductor
Sharp Corp, Sharp Microelectronics, Sharp Devices
Sheenly Lighting Co. Ltd
Signify N.V. (formerly known as Philips Lighting N.V)
Silergy Corporation
STG Aerospace Limited
TE Connectivity
Texas Instruments Incorporated
Thorn Lighting (Zumtobel Group)
Toshiba Materials Company, Ltd.
Universal Douglas Lighting Americas, Inc. (UDLA)
Vossloh-Schwabe Deutschland GmbH
WAC Lighting
Zumtobel Lighting GmbH
3.3 Competitor Global Market Share (2021) Human Centric Lighting Modules/Devices
4. Market Research Methodology

5. Human Centric Lighting Market Forecast DataBase (Explanation: Excel worksheets)

List of Tables
Human Centric Lighting Product Categories
Human Centric Lighting Regional Categories
Modules/Devices in HCL Global Forecast, by Region ($ Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL Global Forecast, by Major Product Type ($ Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL Global Forecast, by Application ($ Million)
Risk Classification
LED Color Variety - Selected Examples
LED Color Chart
Modules/Devices in HCL Global Forecast, by Major Product Type ($ Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL Global Forecast, by Major Product Type (Quantity/Units)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products Global Forecast ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products Global Forecast (Quantity)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Global Forecast, by Application ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Global Forecast, by Application (Quantity/Units, Million)
SSL-Based HCL - America Region Forecast (USA and “Rest of America”) ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL America Region Forecast, by Major Product Type ($ Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL America Forecast, by Major Product Type (Quantity/Units)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products America Forecast ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products America Forecast (Quantity)
Modules/Devices in HCL - America Forecast, by Application ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - America Forecast, by Application (Quantity/Units, Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL EMEA Forecast, by Major Product Type ($ Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL EMEA Forecast, by Major Product Type (Quantity/Units)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products EMEA Forecast ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products EMEA Forecast (Quantity)
Modules/Devices in HCL - EMEA Forecast, by Application ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - EMEA Forecast, by Application (Quantity/Units, Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL APAC Forecast, by Major Product Type ($ Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL APAC Forecast, by Major Product Type (Quantity/Units)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products APAC Forecast ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - Lighting Management Products APAC Forecast (Quantity)
Modules/Devices in HCL - APAC Forecast, by Application ($Million)
Modules/Devices in HCL - APAC Forecast, by Application (Quantity/Units, Million)
Human Centric Lighting Product Categories
Human Centric Lighting Application Categories

List of Figures
Product Life Cycle
Evolution of Research Emphasis during Technology Life Cycle
Modules/Devices in HCL Global Forecast, by Region ($ Billion)
LED DALI Driver used in Human Centric Lighting
LED DALI Driver used in Human Centric Lighting
LED Light Engine and DMX Control used in Human Centric Lighting
LED Light Engine, DALI Controllers, Sensors and Touch-panels used in HCL
Spectrally Tunable LED Modules
10-Channel Spectrally Tunable LED Modules
Recessed LED light fixture for drop ceilings (Panel Modules)
Circadian BR30 LED Bulb
External Control Module for Luminaires
Intelligent Lighting Control Network
Room Controller
Network Bridge Module
Specialty Switches
Color Control Preset Switch
Occupancy/Vacancy Sensors
Daylight Sensor
In-Vehicle Lighting
Work Environment Human Centric Lighting - (Night, Morning, and Evening Shifts)
Human Centric Lighting Control Arrangement for Roadway Lighting Distribution
Circadian Illuminometer
Controlling Dimming and Correlated Color Temperature (CCT) Levels
Circadian Phototransduction
Circadian Phototransduction
LED Chromatic Chart
SSL-Based HCL America Region Forecast, (USA and “Rest of America”) ($Million)
SSL-Based HCL EMEA Region ($Million)
SSL-Based HCL APAC Region ($Million)
LED Track Head
Smart Lighting System
Tunable-white controller for use with LED power supply
High Current LED Array
High Efficacy LED
Light Engine
240V LED Display Case Lighting System
Silicone Encapsulant and Silicone Lens in LEDs
Wireless Area Controller
LED Lighting Fixture
Mounting Track and Light Fixture
Input unit DALI PCU - compact power control unit
LED Product Area and Capability
Human Centric Lighting - Typical Distributed Intelligence Network Topology
Lighting Control Sensor
DALI-2 Multi-Master Application Controller
Red-Green-Blue (RGB) LED Lighting Shield Board
Red-Green-Blue (RGB) LED Lighting Shield Link and Bluetooth Low Energy Unit (BLE)
RGB LED Lighting Shield Link and Bluetooth Low Energy Unit (BLE) /Power Supply
Controls for Building Management System
Fine-Tuned Lighting for Each Employee Workspace
Upgraded LED-Based Strip Lighting
Key Technology of company’s products
Linear / Area Constant Current - Dimmable DALI
Human Centric Lighting - Various Light Profiles
DLM Color Control Schedule Switch (without wall plate)
Light Engine for Human Centric Lighting
DMX-DALI Gateway Control for Human Centric Lighting
Occupancy Sensor (Wall Unit)
Driver on Board LED Module for Lighting
LED Track Lighting Head
Human Centric Lighting LEDs
Average Current Mode Control LED Driver IC for Smart Lighting and HCL
Smart Lighting Demonstration Solution - Application Illustration
Wire Interconnect for LED Lighting-Module Applications
Tunable White LED (new in production)
Simulation of Daylight - Supporting the Circadian Rhythm
Building Management - Network Central Monitoring
Home Lighting Downlight Module
High Power (Component LED)
LED Placement Technology
New LED Package Technology
LED Driver
LED Driver
LED - Chip-On-Board (COB)
Human Centric Lighting App
Human Centric Smart Switch
General Lighting Power Controller IC
LED Chip Technology Creating nature-based lighting environment
Smart Driver and Smart Sensors
Leading Competitor Market Share (2021) - HCL- Specified Modules/Devices
ElectroniCast Consultants - Market Research & Forecasting Methodology

Report Title: Human Centric Lighting Global Market Forecast 2021-2031

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