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BMI View: The Serbian economy will continue to recover from the 2014
recession in the coming two years, aided by Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic's
credible market-friendly and structural reform of the public sector, along with
the prospects of EU accession providing a policy anchor for the Serbian
government. With a decrease in the unemployment rate and growth in household
income, indications for retail growth remain promising.
Key Views And Developments
-While we maintain a cautious outlook for the Serbian retail sector, we expect
strengthening household spending to show from 2017 across our forecast period to
2020. In 2016, total household spending is forecast to show almost a 3%
contraction in US dollar terms but then to grow again by 6.6% in 2017, reaching
7.3% in 2020.
-The total population will decrease by an average of 0.4% annually over the
forecast period - one of the fastest rates in the region.