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View: We maintain our cautiously optimistic view on the Argentine port sector. The country enjoys a good commodities mix but continues to struggle with external headwinds as well as internal difficulties such as rising inflation and labour unrest. Weaker private consumption will dampen imports while a weaker exchange rate will marginally improve the competitiveness of exports, with knock-on effects for port volumes.Argentina's economic recession will persist in 2015, and will be deeper than we previously anticipated due to very weak private consumption and gross fixed capital formation. Argentine real GDP will contract in 2015 due to tepid private consumption and fixed investment growth. We forecast real GDP growth of -0.7% in 2015, a downward revision from our prior forecast of -0.3% growth. This will follow estimated growth of -0.5% in 2014, which we have also revised down from our previous expectation for a 0.2% expansion.
Industry View 7Argentina - Q215 7SWOT 9Argentina - Q215 9Political 11Economic 12Operational Risk 13Industry Forecast 16Port Of Buenos Aires Throughput 16Port Of Bahía Blanca Throughput 20Table: Major Ports Data (Argentina 2012-2019) 23Table: Trade Overview (Argentina 2012-2019) 24Table: Key Trade Indicators (Argentina 2012-2019) 25Table: Top Import Sources, 2006-2013 26Table: Top Export Destinations, 2006-2013 26Market Overview 28Argentina - Q215 28Company Profile 35Ultrapetrol 35Shipping - Global Industry View 40Container Lines To Prosper In 2015 40Global Company Strategy 45Maersk Line 45Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 56CMA CGM 62Evergreen Line 73COSCO Container Lines Company (COSCON) 80Macroeconomic Forecasts 88Economic Analysis 88GDP By Expenditure Breakdown 89Table: Economic Activity (Argentina 2009-2018) 93Demographic Forecast 94Table: Population Headline Indicators (Argentina 1990-2025) 95Table: Key Population Ratios (Argentina 1990-2025) 95Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (Argentina 1990-2025) 96Table: Population By Age Group (Argentina 1990-2025) 96Table: Population By Age Group % (Argentina 1990-2025) 97