Estonia Shipping Report

 Published On: Dec, 2013 |    No of Pages: 117 |  Published By: BMI Shipping | Format: PDF
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Estonian Economy Is Changing Gears
Since our last quarterly shipping report, we have marginally reduced estimated GDP growth for 2013 to
1.9% (down from 2.1% previously) but we continue to forecast a brisk recovery in 2014, with growth of
3.2%. In our view the Estonian economy is experiencing something of a gear change. Formerly propelled by
growth in exports and fixed investment, the shape of growth is now shifting towards private consumption,
which will prop up economic activity until external demand gradually recovers. Export growth slowed
significantly in 2013, hardly surprising since we have been seeing a slowdown in just about all of Estonia's
key trading partners, including Russia, Sweden, Finland, and Latvia. The slowdown in fixed investment
reflects base effects: there had been a surge in public investment in 2012 as the government used the
proceeds from carbon quota sales to fund construction projects. When this one-off stimulus ended in 2013 it
contributed to a sharp decline in headline gross fixed capital formation.
The big driver for 2014 growth with be private consumption, supported by improving credit conditions, a
healthy labour market (unemployment fell to 8.1% in Q213 - lowest in almost five years), and sings of
growing purchasing power. There are also positive indications that residential construction activity may
begin to pick up in the near future.

Industry View 7
Shipping 10
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Port Of Tallinn Throughput 14
Table: Major Port Data 22
Table: Trade Overview 22
Table: Key Trade Indicators 23
Table: Top Import Partners, 2004-2012 24
Table: Top Export Destinations 2004-2012 25
Market Overview 26
Estonia Container Shipping Market Overview 26
Industry Trends And Developments 39
Shipping - Global Industry View 42
Box Demand: Container Outlook Strengthening In 2014 42
Box Supply: Slowing New Vessel Deliveries To Decrease Overcapacity Pressure 59
Table: Q313 Container Vessel Deliveries 60
Table: 2013 Mega Vessel Orders 61
Box Rates: Rate Push In Preparation For 2014 65
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 72
Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 72
Global Company Strategy 73
Maersk Line 73
Mediterranean Shipping Company 81
Evergreen Line 94
COSCO Container Lines Company 100
Macroeconomic Forecasts 106
Economic Activity 106
Table: Estonia - GDP by Expenditure 112
Demographic Forecast 114
Demographic Outlook 114
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 115
Table: Estonia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 116
Table: Estonia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 117
Table: Estonia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 117

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