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Industry ViewWe reiterate our cautious expectations towards South Korea's economic growth prospects, this time from asectoral perspective. Korean semiconductor manufacturers will have to constantly innovate and invest inR&D in order to maintain its competitive edge and fend off competition from the Chinese or risk taking theroute of the Japanese tech sector. Additionally, we highlight a possible stagnation in the Koreanpetrochemical industry and a reversal in the shipbuilding industry as additionally downside risks.South Korea's consensus-beating real GDP growth in Q3 2013 gave cause for optimism in the country'seconomic growth trajectory. Despite this, however, we remain cautious towards its economic growthtrajectory given the structural weakness that we believe will continue to plague the Korean economy (see'Staying Cautious In 2014 Despite Upside Growth Surprise', October 31 2013). In this article, we articulatethe same convictions we have from a sectoral perspective, and highlight three industries we believe maypotentially carry some near to medium term downside risk for South Korea's economic growth prospects.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Shipping 9Political 11Economic 12Business Environment 13Industry Forecast 14Port Of Busan Throughput 14Port Of Incheon Throughput 20Table: Major Port Data, 2011-2018 23Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018 24Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 25Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 26Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2012 27Market Overview 28South Korea Container Shipping Overview 28Industry Trends And Developments 34Company Profile 40STX Pan Ocean (STX) 40Hyundai Merchant Marine (HMM) 44Hanjin Shipping 47Shipping - Global Industry View 54Box Demand: Container Outlook Strengthening In 2014 54Box Supply: Slowing New Vessel Deliveries To Decrease Overcapacity Pressure 71Table: Q313 Container Vessel Deliveries 72Table: 2013 Mega Vessel Orders 73Box Rates: Rate Push In Preparation For 2014 77Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI Europe Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 84Table: 2012 & 2013 SCFI USWC Base Port Average Freight Rate Overview 84Global Company Strategy 85Maersk Line 85Mediterranean Shipping Company 93CMA CGM 99Evergreen Line 106COSCO Container Lines Company 112Macroeconomic Forecasts 118Economic Analysis 118Strong Downside Pressures in 2014 119Private Consumption 121Government Consumption 121Investment 121Net Exports 121Demographic Forecast 122Demographic Outlook 122Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 123Table: South Korea's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 124Table: South Korea's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 125Table: South Korea's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 125