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India's state-run major ports continue to be the underperformers in the BRIC country's freight transport infrastructure, with volumes at many facilities struggling to grow. Ports have also been harmed by a ban on iron ore mining, and a fall in exports to Europe. A case in point is the Jawaharlal Nehru Port, India's largest in terms of containers handled, which has seen a decrease in its box throughput as it continues to chase the elusive fourth terminal. We see strong growth potential in the air freight sector, however, as air freight and logistics companies look to capitalise on India's growing pharmaceuticals export market, though national carrier Air India will struggle to take on this mantle given its financial constraints. The opening up of the air sector to foreign players could provide a boost to the marketHeadline Industry Data ¦ 2014/15 Port of Kandla tonnage throughput is forecast to grow by 1.4%, and is projected to average growth of 2.1% a year to 2018/19¦ 2014/15 rail freight growth forecast is 5.7% and is projected to average 6.1% to 2018/19¦ 2014/15 air freight tonnes growth forecast is 6.1% and is forecast to average 6.5% to 2018/19¦ 2014/15 total trade real growth forecast at 8.4%, and to average 8.8% to 2018/19.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Freight Transport 9Political 10Economic 12Business Environment 14Industry Forecast 16Air Freight 18Table: Air Freight (India 2011-2018) 20Rail Freight 20Table: Rail Freight (India 2011-2018) 23Maritime Freight 23Table: Maritime Freight (India 2011-2018) 24Trade 26Table: Trade Overview (India 2011-2018) 26Table: Key Trade Indicators (India 2011-2018) 26Table: Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 28Table: Main Export Destinations, 2004-2012 29Market Overview 30Industry Trends And Developments 35Rail Freight 35Road And Logistics 36Air Freight 36Maritime Freight 38Company Profile 43India Railways 43Container Corporation of India (Concor) 48Air India Cargo 53Shipping Corporation of India (SCI) 56Mercator Lines 61Varun Shipping 64Great Eastern Shipping (GE Shipping) 68Political Outlook 72Domestic Politics 72Table: TABLE: INDIA POLITICAL OVERVIEW 73Long-Term Political Outlook 75Table: TABLE: INDIA POLITICAL OVERVIEW 81Oil Price Outlook 83Bunker Fuel 83Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 83The Storm Clears For Shipping 84(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices 86Long-Term Threats Linger 87Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder 89Risks To Outlook 90Jet Fuel 90Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl 90Better Outlook Tames Price Fall 91Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth93Risks To Outlook 96Diesel 97Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 97New York's One-Off Heat Up 97NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected 100Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward 104Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks 106Risks To Outlook 110Macroeconomic Forecasts 111Economic Analysis 111Downgrade Due To Significant Pull-Back In Capital Spending 112Waning Private Consumption Growth Poses Further Downside Risks 113Not All Gloom: Data Could Boost BJP's Position 113Table: India - Economic Activity115Demographic Forecast 116Demographic Outlook 116Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 117Table: India's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 118Table: India's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 119Table: India's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020119Methodology 120Industry Forecast Methodology 120Sector-Specific Methodology 121Sources 122