Mexico Freight Transport Report

 Published On: Jul, 2014 |    No of Pages: 94 |  Published By: BMI Freight Transport | Format: PDF
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After Mexico's real GDP growth came in at 1.1% in 2013, below our initial 1.6% estimate, we have revised our 2014 growth forecast. We now forecast real GDP to expand by 3.3% in 2014, compared to 3.5% previously. We have upgraded our 10-year average real GDP growth from 3.8% to 4.1%, following the passage of energy sector reform, which we expect will garner significant foreign investment in the coming years. We remain optimistic toward Mexico's long-term growth outlook on the back of a booming manufacturing sector, an increasingly strong private consumer and favourable demographics

The latest release of GDP data show that manufacturing in Mexico grew 2.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) during the third quarter of 2013. In addition to favourable data out of the US, Mexico's key export market, we note that autos manufacturers Chrysler and Nissan have indicated plans to expand manufacturing capacity at their plants in Mexico. The passage of energy sector reform will bolster sentiment towards Mexican assets and contribute to stronger real GDP growth in the coming years.

Industry View 7
SWOT 9
Freight Transport 9
Political 10
Economic 11
Business Environment 12
Industry Forecast 13
Air Freight 13
Table: Air Freight, 2011-2018 15
Road Freight 15
Table: Road Freight, 2011-2018 17
Table: Rail Freight, 2011-2018 19
Inland Waterway Freight 19
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2011-2018 19
Maritime Freight 20
Table: Maritime Freight, 2011-2018 21
Trade 21
Table: Trade Overview, 2011-2018 21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2011-2018 22
Table: Main Import Partners, 2005-2012 23
Table: Main Export Partners, 2005-2012 24
Market Overview 25
Industry Trends And Developments 29
Maritime Freight 29
Rail Freight 32
Air Freight 32
Company Profile 33
Grupo México 33
Kansas City Southern de México 39
Aerotransportes Mas de Carga 45
Political Outlook 47
Domestic Politics 47
Long-Term Political Outlook 49
Table: Political Overview 53
Oil Price Outlook 54
Jet Fuel 54
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl 54
Better Outlook Tames Price Fall 54
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth56
Risks To Outlook 59
Diesel 60
Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 60
New York's One-Off Heat Up 60
NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected 63
Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward 67
Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks 69
Risks To Outlook 73
Bunker Fuel 74
Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 74
The Storm Clears For Shipping 75
(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices 77
Long-Term Threats Linger 78
Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder 80
Risks To Outlook 81
Macroeconomic Forecasts 82
Table: Mexico - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth % 87
Demographic Forecast 88
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 89
Table: Mexico's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 90
Table: Mexico's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 91
Table: Mexico's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 91
Methodology 92
Industry Forecast Methodology 92
Sector-Specific Methodology 93
Sources 94

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