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Following a year in which BMI believes saw increasing freight volumes in Romania, 2014 will signal further growth across the whole freight transport sector in line with the country's macroeconomic outlookTotal trade is projected to pick up with our Country Risk desk forecasting a y-o-y increase of 4.75% in 2014 following an estimated growth of 4.90% in 2013Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 3% in 2014. The mode did not manage to defy the downturn but so far appears to have defied European Union (EU) pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region, that is not to say, however, that road freight's market share is safeBMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Romania's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, although currently is expected to grow at a slower pace. In the longer term the mode might benefit from the privatisation of Romania's national rail freight company CFR Marfa, which, however, is unlikely to happen until at least 2015.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Freight Transport 9Political 10Economic 11Business Environment 12Industry Forecast 13Road Freight 15Table: Road Freight (Romania 2011-2018) 18Rail Freight 18Table: Rail Freight (Romania 2011-2018) 20Inland Waterway Freight 20Table: Inland Waterway Freight (Romania 2011-2018). 22Air Freight 22Table: Air Freight (Romania 2011-2018) 23Maritime Freight 23Table: Maritime Freight (Romania 2011-2019) 24 Trade 24Table: Trade Overview (Romania 2011-2018) 24 Table: Key Trade Indicators (Romania 2011-2018) 24Table: Top Import Destinations, 2004-2012 26Table: Top Export Destinations, 2004-2012 26Market Overview 28Industry Trends And Developments 32Romania - Q3 2014 32Maritime Freight 32Rail Freight 33Company Profile 35TAROM Cargo 35DB Schenker Romania 38CFR Marfa 41Political Outlook 43Domestic Politics 43Table: ROMANIA POLITICS TABLE 46Long-Term Political Outlook 47Oil Price Outlook 52Bunker Fuel 52Table: BMI Crude Oil & Bunker Fuel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 52The Storm Clears For Shipping 53(Slightly) Better Times For Bunker Prices 55Long-Term Threats Linger 56Pressing Rotterdam & New York Harder 58Risks To Outlook 59Jet Fuel 59Table: BMI Crude Oil & Jet Fuel Price Forecast, USD/bbl 59Better Outlook Tames Price Fall 60Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volume Growth62Risks To Outlook 65Diesel 66Table: BMI Crude Oil And Diesel Price Forecast (USD/bbl) 66New York's One-Off Heat Up 66NY: Short-Term Diesel Price Support Expected 69Rotterdam: Green Policies Drive Diesel Forward 73Singapore: Diesel Support With Power Risks 75Risks To Outlook 79Macroeconomic Forecasts 80Economic Analysis 80Table: Romania - Economic Activity 84Demographic Forecast 85Demographic Outlook 85Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 86Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 87Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 88Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 88Methodology 89Industry Forecast Methodology 89Sector-Specific Methodology 90Sources 91