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BMI maintains a cautiously optimistic stance on South Africa's freight transport sector in 2015.Although there are risks to the mining sector from a potential hard landing in China, we believe that growthin the mining industry will continue, which bodes well for the rail and port sectors. However, imports ofcontainerised goods could struggle to maintain volumes as unemployment rises.South Africa registered an increase of 7.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) in freight volumes in September 2014,according to Statistics South Africa, based on a preliminary land transport survey. Income registered anincrease of 12.3% During Q314 the income from freight transportation rose by 9.5% year-on-year (y-o-y),with mining, quarrying, agriculture and forestry key contributors to this rise. These dynamics will continueto support growth in freight transport volumes in 2015.
Table of ContentsIndustry View 7SWOT 9Freight Transport 9Political 11Economic 12Industry Forecast 13Air Freight 14Table: Air Freight (South Africa 2011-2018). 14Rail Freight 14Table: Rail Freight (South Africa 2011-2018). 16Road Haulage 16Table: Road Freight (South Africa 2011-2018) 17Maritime Freight 17Table: Maritime Freight Throughput (South Africa 2011-2014) 18Trade 18Table: Trade Overview (South Africa 2011-2018) 18Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Africa 2011-2018) 19Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn). 20Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2004-2012 (USDmn). 20Market Overview 22Industry Trends And Developments 27Rail Freight 27Logistics And Road Haulage 27Air Freight 28Maritime Freight 28Company Profile 30Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) 30Grindrod 34Safmarine 38Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL) 42Political Outlook 44Domestic Politics 44Long-Term Political Outlook 46Table: South Africa Political Overview49Macroeconomic Forecasts 51Economic Analysis 51Table: Real GDP Growth, % chg q-o-q, SAAR51 Table: Economic Activity (South Africa 2009-2018) 56Demographic Forecast 57Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Africa 1990-2025) 58Table: Key Population Ratios (South Africa 1990-2025). 58Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Africa 1990-2025) 59Table: Population By Age Group (South Africa 1990-2025) 59Table: Population By Age Group % (South Africa 1990-2025)60Methodology 62Industry Forecast Methodology 62Sector-Specific Methodology 63Sources 64