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BMI View: We expect to see moderate growth across the different freight modes
in Korea in 2016.
Road freight will post the strongest growth across the freight modes, growing by
4.6%, as the uptick in consumer spending will benefit this mode the most.
Rail freight growth will increase to 3% in 2016 as the good performance of the
domestic construction sector in light of the Winter Olympics in 2018 will drive
demand for iron and steel.
Air freight will see its growth rate decline to 2% as import demand from China
for Korea's consumer electronics will be weak.
Over the medium term, we expect the Korean freight sector to benefit from the
recently ratified FTA with Vietnam.
Over the short-term we hold a bearish view with regards to the Korean economy as
the moderate recovery in the domestic economy will be insufficient to offset the
stronger than expected slowdown in the external sector.
As a result, we have downgraded our real GDP forecast for 2016 to 2.8% from 3.0%
Good growth in the construction sector will provide some support to economic
growth in 2016, however, domestic consumption is expected to remain muted,
largely predicated on South Korea's persistently high household debt load
(approximately 90% of GDP).Weak demand for consumer articles will particularly
hit air freight.
We expect to see relatively weak trade dynamics in 2016 as the ongoing slowdown
in the Chinese economy as well as the strength of the Korean wong relative to
the Japanese yen will continue to weigh on Korean exports.
Further, the high household indebtedness will partly mitigate the positive
impact of the strong domestic currency on import demand.
Over the medium term, we expect trade flows to pick up slightly as Korea will
benefit from the recently ratified FTA with Vietnam.
Further, recent signals of détente between the regional powers, China, Japan and
South Korea as well as in the bilateral relationship between the two Koreas are
good news for Korea's trade dynamics and, if resulting in the ratification of
further FTA's, will stimulate freight over the long-term.
BMI Industry View
Table: Trade Overview (South Korea 2012-2019)
Table: Key Trade Indicators (South Korea 2012-2019)
Table: Main Import Partners
Table: Main Export Partners
Road Freight Forecast
Table: Road Freight (South Korea 2012-2019)
Rail Freight Forecast
Table: Rail Freight (South Korea 2012-2019)
Air Freight Forecast
Table: Air Freight (South Korea 2012-2019)
CJ Korea Express
Korean Air Cargo (KAL)
South Korea Domestic Politics
South Korea Long-term Political Outlook
Table: South Korea: Political Overview
North Korea Domestic Politics
Table: Korean Workers' Party - Major Events
North Korea Long-term Political Outlook
Oil Price Outlook
Europe - Brent On Board For A Bumpy Ride
Table: Economic Activity (South Korea 2010-2019)
Table: Population Headline Indicators (South Korea 1990-2025)
Table: Key Population Ratios (South Korea 1990-2025)
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (South Korea 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group (South Korea 1990-2025)
Table: Population By Age Group % (South Korea 1990-2025)
Industry Forecast Methodology