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This econometric study covers the outlook for airport airside services in Asia. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in Asia). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for airport airside services in Asia. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of Asia. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 71.1 Overview 71.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 71.3 The Methodology 81.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 101.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 111.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 111.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 121.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 131.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 131.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 132 ASIA 152.1 Executive Summary 152.2 Bangladesh 162.3 Bhutan 172.4 Brunei 172.5 Burma 172.6 Cambodia 192.7 China 202.8 Hong Kong 212.9 India 212.10 Indonesia 222.11 Japan 232.12 Laos 242.13 Macau 252.14 Malaysia 262.15 Maldives 272.16 Mongolia 272.17 Nepal 282.18 North Korea 292.19 Papua New Guinea 302.20 Philippines 302.21 Seychelles 312.22 Singapore 322.23 South Korea 322.24 Sri Lanka 332.25 Taiwan 342.26 Thailand 352.27 Vietnam 352.28 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 362.28.1 Category Definition 362.28.2 Units 362.28.3 Methodology 373 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 393.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 393.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 40