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This econometric study covers the outlook for aircraft leasing in Europe. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in Europe). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for aircraft leasing in Europe. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of Europe. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 71.1 Overview 71.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 71.3 The Methodology 81.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 101.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 111.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 111.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 121.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 131.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 131.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 132 EUROPE 152.1 Executive Summary 152.2 Albania 162.3 Andorra 172.4 Austria 172.5 Belarus 182.6 Belgium 192.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 202.8 Bulgaria 212.9 Croatia 222.10 Cyprus 222.11 Czech Republic 232.12 Denmark 242.13 Estonia 252.14 Finland 252.15 France 262.16 Georgia 272.17 Germany 282.18 Greece 292.19 Hungary 302.20 Iceland 312.21 Ireland 322.22 Italy 322.23 Kazakhstan 332.24 Latvia 342.25 Liechtenstein 352.26 Lithuania 362.27 Luxembourg 362.28 Malta 372.29 Moldova 382.30 Monaco 382.31 Norway 392.32 Poland 402.33 Portugal 412.34 Romania 422.35 Russia 432.36 San Marino 442.37 Slovakia 442.38 Slovenia 452.39 Spain 462.40 Sweden 472.41 Switzerland 482.42 The Netherlands 492.43 The United Kingdom 502.44 Ukraine 512.45 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 512.45.1 Category Definition 512.45.2 Units 522.45.3 Methodology 533 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 553.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 553.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 56