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This econometric study covers the outlook for railroads in Latin America. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-à-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
This study does not report actual sales data (which are simply unavailable, in a comparable or consistent manner in virtually all of the countries in Latin America). This study gives, however, my estimates for the latent demand, or the P.I.E. for railroads in Latin America. It also shows how the P.I.E. is divided across the national markets of Latin America. For each country, I also show my estimates of how the P.I.E. grows over time (positive or negative growth). In order to make these estimates, a multi-stage methodology was employed that is often taught in courses on international strategic planning at graduate schools of business.
Table Of Contents:
1 INTRODUCTION 61.1 Overview 61.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 61.3 The Methodology 71.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 91.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 101.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 101.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 111.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 121.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 121.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 122 LATIN AMERICA 142.1 Executive Summary 142.2 Argentina 152.3 Belize 162.4 Bolivia 172.5 Brazil 172.6 Chile 182.7 Colombia 192.8 Costa Rica 202.9 Ecuador 212.10 El Salvador 222.11 French Guiana 222.12 Guatemala 232.13 Guyana 242.14 Honduras 242.15 Mexico 252.16 Nicaragua 262.17 Panama 272.18 Paraguay 282.19 Peru 292.20 Suriname 302.21 The Falkland Islands 302.22 Uruguay 312.23 Venezuela 322.24 Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) 322.24.1 Category Definition 322.24.2 Units 332.24.3 Methodology 343 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 363.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 363.2 Icon Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 37