United Kingdom Freight Transport and Shipping Report

 Published On: Sep, 2016 |    No of Pages: 52 |  Published By: BMI Freight Transport | Format: PDF
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BMI View: We have adjusted down our trade forecasts for the UK following the Brexit vote, in line with a downgrade of our expectations for the overall macro outlook. The main transmission mechanism within our five-year forecast period is the FX volatility and stalled economic activity as uncertainty persists. More pronounced or structural effects on trade of the actual disengagement of the UK from the European Union will be reflected in the next decade. Rail freight will go in structural decline in terms of volumes carried as the phasing out of coal power capacity hits its main commodity. Road freight volumes growth will soften as oil price increase in coming years raise costs of transport.

Total Trade: We have downgraded our forecasts for UK real trade growth of 0.5% in 2017 and 0.8% in 2018 to 0.5% and 0.8%, from 3.0% and 2.8% previously. The downgrade reflects of our expectations of slowing macroeconomic activity both in the UK and Europe, with the lead-up to Brexit playing a part in trade slowdown, but not the sole factor.

Road freight: We have kept the growth forecasts steady and note a slight contraction in volumes carried via heavy goods vehicles (HGV) in the coming years as fuel prices edge higher, increasing transport costs. e-Commerce has been responsible for the steady growth of road freight, so any decline in consumer spending would take a toll on the volumes carried.
BMI Industry View . 5
Table: UK Freight Transport - Key Indicators                . 5
SWOT .. 7
Freight Transport .... 7
Industry Forecast .. 9
Trade Forecast ........ 9
Table: Balance of Trade In Goods, GBPbn                . . . 12
Table: UK Key Trade Indicators (2013-2020)                . 26
Road Freight Forecast ...... 27
Table: Road Freight (United Kingdom 2014-2020)               . . 30
Air Freight Forecast ........ 30
Table: Air Freight (United Kingdom 2014-2020)               . . . . 31
Rail Freight Forecast ....... 31
Table: Rail Freight Loses Intensify As Commodities Trade Falls             . . 33
Market Overview . 34
Company Profile .. 36
Freightliner  36
Virgin Atlantic Cargo ....... 39
BA World Cargo .... 41
Demographic Forecast . 44
Table: Population Headline Indicators (United Kingdom 1990-2025)            . . . 45
Table: Key Population Ratios (United Kingdom 1990-2025)             . . . . . . 45
Table: Urban/Rural Population & Life Expectancy (United Kingdom 1990-2025)          . . . . . 46
Table: Population By Age Group (United Kingdom 1990-2025)             . . . 46
Table: Population By Age Group % (United Kingdom 1990-2025)             47
Methodology ........ 49
Industry Forecast Methodology .. 49
Sector-Specific Methodology ...... 50
Sources .... 52
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