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Following a year in which BMI believes saw mixed growth dynamics in different freight modes, 2014 will signal growth across the whole freight transport sector in line with macroeconomic outlook. US demand is set to continue recovering in 2014, while the eurozone we believe will only return to the path of recovery. Development in both major economies will have a positive effect on throughput at Hong Kong's port, which caters as a container shipping hub for Asia, and also the country's air freight volumes, with Hong Kong boasting the busiest cargo airport globally.The port of Hong Kong is forecast to return to growth both in tonnage and box throughput in 2014, after they were hindered by a forty day strike at the port in 2013. Although up until 2012 it was managing to weather the competition from the development of Shenzhen as China's second largest container port and despite the close proximity of the two facilities was managing to retain its lead, Hong Kong is now estimated to have lost it to Shenzhen, which, BMI believes, also had its container throughput bolstered as a result of the Hong Kong 2013 strike, as some shippers re-routed there to avoid the industrial action. We, however, also highlight that the port of Hong Kong has long-term expansion plans in place to ensure it remains among the world's top ports.
Industry View 7SWOT 9Freight Transport 9Political 11Economic 12Business Environment 13Industry Forecast 14Air Freight 18Table: Air Freight 19Maritime 20Table: Maritime Freight 22Inland Waterway 22Table: Inland Waterway Freight 24Road 24Table: Road Freight 25Rail 26Table: Rail Freight 27Trade 27Table: Trade Overview 27Table: Key Trade Indicators 27Table: Top Import Destinations 29Table: Top Export Destinations 30Market Overview 31Industry Trends And Developments 35Air 35Maritime 36Company Profile 38Cathay Pacific Cargo 38Pacific Basin Shipping - Q1 2014 42Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) - Q1 2014 46TS Lines - Q1 2014 50Sinotrans Shipping Limited - Q1 2014 52Political Outlook 55Long-Term Political Outlook 55Table: Hong Kong Political Overview 57Short-Term Political Outlook 58Oil Price Outlook 61Global Oil Product Price Outlook 61Methodology 61Crude Price Forecasts 61Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 62Variance Across Product Markets 62Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 65Weak Demand Persists 66Risks To Outlook 67Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 67Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 68Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 72Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 74Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 76Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 78Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 78Macroeconomic Forecasts 82Industry Forecast 82Property Risks Growing, Financial Services Support Weakening 82Mainland Exposure On The Rise 84Government Consumption 86Gross Fixed Capital Formation 86Net Exports 86Table: Hong Kong - Economic Activity 86Demographic Forecast 87Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 88Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89Table: Hong Kong's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 90Table: Hong Kong's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 90Methodology 91Industry Forecast Methodology 91Sector-Specific Methodology 92Sources 93