Hong Kong Freight Transport Report

 Published On: Jan, 2014 |    No of Pages: 93 |  Published By: BMI Freight Transport | Format: PDF
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Following a year in which BMI believes saw mixed growth dynamics in different freight modes, 2014 will signal growth across the whole freight transport sector in line with macroeconomic outlook. US demand is set to continue recovering in 2014, while the eurozone we believe will only return to the path of recovery. Development in both major economies will have a positive effect on throughput at Hong Kong's port, which caters as a container shipping hub for Asia, and also the country's air freight volumes, with Hong Kong boasting the busiest cargo airport globally.

The port of Hong Kong is forecast to return to growth both in tonnage and box throughput in 2014, after they were hindered by a forty day strike at the port in 2013. Although up until 2012 it was managing to weather the competition from the development of Shenzhen as China's second largest container port and despite the close proximity of the two facilities was managing to retain its lead, Hong Kong is now estimated to have lost it to Shenzhen, which, BMI believes, also had its container throughput bolstered as a result of the Hong Kong 2013 strike, as some shippers re-routed there to avoid the industrial action. We, however, also highlight that the port of Hong Kong has long-term expansion plans in place to ensure it remains among the world's top ports.

Industry View 7
Freight Transport 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Air Freight 18
Table: Air Freight 19
Maritime 20
Table: Maritime Freight 22
Inland Waterway 22
Table: Inland Waterway Freight 24
Road 24
Table: Road Freight 25
Rail 26
Table: Rail Freight 27
Trade 27
Table: Trade Overview 27
Table: Key Trade Indicators 27
Table: Top Import Destinations 29
Table: Top Export Destinations 30
Market Overview 31
Industry Trends And Developments 35
Air 35
Maritime 36
Company Profile 38
Cathay Pacific Cargo 38
Pacific Basin Shipping - Q1 2014 42
Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) - Q1 2014 46
TS Lines - Q1 2014 50
Sinotrans Shipping Limited - Q1 2014 52
Political Outlook 55
Long-Term Political Outlook 55
Table: Hong Kong Political Overview 57
Short-Term Political Outlook 58
Oil Price Outlook 61
Global Oil Product Price Outlook 61
Methodology 61
Crude Price Forecasts 61
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts, Average Price (US$/bbl) 62
Variance Across Product Markets 62
Narrower US Market Crude-Product Spreads 65
Weak Demand Persists 66
Risks To Outlook 67
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, US$/bbl 67
Supply: Supported By Global Refining Capacity 68
Naphtha: US Gas Hits Demand 72
Gasoline And Gasoil/Diesel: Subsidies & Fuel Efficiency Cap Upward Movement 74
Jet Fuel: Limited Upward Movement 76
Table: Total Air Freight And Passenger Volumes 78
Bunker Fuels: Sulphur Control To Hit Rotterdam Hardest 78
Macroeconomic Forecasts 82
Industry Forecast 82
Property Risks Growing, Financial Services Support Weakening 82
Mainland Exposure On The Rise 84
Government Consumption 86
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 86
Net Exports 86
Table: Hong Kong - Economic Activity 86
Demographic Forecast 87
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 88
Table: Hong Kong's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 89
Table: Hong Kong's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 90
Table: Hong Kong's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 90
Methodology 91
Industry Forecast Methodology 91
Sector-Specific Methodology 92
Sources 93

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